1.26.2004

Neck and Neck in New Hampshire?

With many polls showing Dean and Kerry almost neck and neck in NH and with snow predicted for tomorrow which could severely change the dynamic, it makes me truly wonder how tomorrow will play out in the Democratic primary.

Remember that Newsweek this week said that in their most recent polls, Kerry could win over Bush, and Edwards and Dean would come very close to winning (I think both are witin the statistical range of error) over our beloved leader; overall, Newsweek reported that more people wanted Bush replaced than kept on for a second term.

I'm actually sorry to see Clark isn't making a better showing (at least in pre-primary polls), but I also think that if Dean can survive, a Dean-Clark matchup could tilt lots of people in their direction. But I find myself ready to live with whomever (Clark, Dean, Edwards or Kerry) becomes the Democratic nominee. Seeing an intelligent replacement in the WH - along with strong voter turnout across the board (if you're waving a flag, haul your ass out to vote) - matters more than anything. I'm leaning towards Dean, I believe, with Clark and Kerry close runners-up, followed by Edwards.

Here's how I'd like to see tomorrow and SC next week play out:

Dean - in 1st with a slight lead
Clark/Kerry - closely in second and third

Again, it's difficult. I don't like to rule Edwards out. I think he has some good ideas. His experience, however, may not quite play. He's a first-term senator. But hell, the way Washington's been run the last 30 years, I'm not sure experience in Washington is a good thing, which is why Dean is the candidate I lean towards.