Unemployment Rate

Mr. Bush and several of his cheering section today have insisted that everything's great because the unemployment level has dropped again. Jesus, I've got a professional style blender that doesn't spin like this.

First, the number of jobs created in July was 108,000 less than was needed just to barely try to keep pace (and we've had a number of underages here, so we've got a cumulative net loss).

Second, Bush's people decided long ago to drop anyone off the unemployment rolls who've been out of work for a bit. Unfortunately, that is a LOT of people because while some segments have been able to find real employment again quickly so long as they accept a sharp decline in pay, a very significant number have been out of regular work for 2-3 years or more. I know because I'm one of them. Do I work? Sure. But it's contract work, all whatever I can get, and subject to change in a half-blink. As of months ago, I calculated that I had applied for more than 880 jobs just in two years.

Third, almost every time they report employment figures (which they do on Friday so it gets lost in the other news and weekend excitement), they come back later and even more quietly report that the figures are worse than originally estimated.

Fourth, consumers aren't spending now. That's how worried they are.

Fifth, all three leading economic indicators, as of today, are at record lows for the year.

Sixth, most analysts say there is no reason to expect that the second half of the year will be any better economically.