"The Way In - And Out - of Israel's Wars

The Christian Science Monitor's editorial today also offers some perspective on the Israel-Lebanon crisis, including that the U.S. may have helped bring this about by forcing a marginalization of the Hamas-led Palestinians by refusing to have anything to do with the duly elected Palestinian leaders.

Here's a snip:

Three weeks into the Israeli-Palestinian armed conflict over a kidnapped Israeli soldier, the violence has taken a very dangerous turn, veering into Lebanon, and possibly elsewhere. One way out is to understand the new elements in this two-front war.

Often, it's difficult to sort out who started what in a Middle East conflict, but that's not the case here. Militant Islamists – Hamas in the Gaza strip and Hizbullah in Lebanon – provoked this by incursions into Israel, killing and abducting Israeli soldiers, and demanding the release of Arab prisoners in exchange for the Israeli captives.

Why did they do this? Most likely to justify their militancy at a point when democracy and peace in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon were getting too close for comfort – but not yet close enough to check their power.

At the same time, Hamas, newly elected to run the Palestinian legislature and ministries but internally divided between moderates and militants, needed to divert attention from peace moves by President Abbas and worsening daily life under its watch. And Hizbullah, also holding ministries in a more democratic Lebanese government, has been under growing pressure to disarm. What better way to justify both groups' violence – supported by
Syria than to align with an issue that has emotional standing among Palestinians and with which they've had success with Israel in the past: prisoner exchanges?

As for Israel, no prime minister would brook soldier kidnappings and rocket attacks on civilians from both borders. This is especially true for new Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who campaigned on further unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian territories and who still has his security credentials to prove. He has recognized that he has no peace partner in Hamas, at least not yet.

Meanwhile, the West may have emboldened militants through its strategy of complete isolation of Hamas. That approach forced Hamas moderates out on a limb, with no way provided for them to slowly climb down and change position on recognizing Israel and renouncing violence.

But crises have a way of changing attitudes, and that can happen here.

One possibility is that, facing war and its effect on civilians, moderate leaders of the governments to which Hamas and Hizbullah belong will find the backbone to stand up to the militant factions.